Humber 2100+ Sustainability Appraisal Scoping Report Addendum Consultation

Sustainability appraisal incorporates the legal requirements set out in the Environmental Assessment of Plans and Programmes Regulations 2004 (commonly referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Regulations). Whereas SEA only considers environmental considerations, SA encompasses wider social and economic factors. When carried out well, SA enables these environmental, social and economic considerations to influence the development of plans, thereby leading to more sustainable decisions and outcomes.

The information below summarises the narratives within the SA scoping report addendum. These describe how tidal flood risk, as outlined within the baselines, affects a range of receptors and help us understand the impact of these different baselines. The narratives also set out which receptors are important and therefore need to be considered in future steps.  

This section also includes some of the opportunities highlighted within the addendum, which will need to be considered during the SA assessment stage. This will enable more sustainable decisions and outcomes, as the impact of different options on a range of environmental, social and economic factors are considered. 

Whilst the topics are presented individually to reflect the structure of the SA, many interdependencies exist. For example, increased flooding will affect the population’s health through direct impacts. The associated economic impact could further affect public health, as communities rely on industries for jobs and resources. Flooding could reduce people’s access to nature, exacerbating mental health impacts, and the loss of this space could also harm important species or habitats.  

Humber 2100+ will need to address these complex interrelationships, ensuring that future options and pathways support sustainability and resilience in the face of climate change. 

Population and human health - As tidal flood risk increases, physical and mental health impacts are expected to increase. The Humber region contains some of the most deprived areas in England (Hull and East Grimsby). Under the future baselines they would experience some of the greatest flood damages.

Access and recreation - The strategy area provides opportunities for recreation and access. Many of these assets are especially vulnerable to tidal flooding. Humber 2100+ will need to consider its impact on these receptors, including any opportunities identified in the addendum to enhance recreational assets.

Economic activity, growth, and inward investment - The Humber is a vital economic hub, supporting industries such as manufacturing, logisitcs, and energy. As the risk of tidal flooding increases, so does the impact on economic activity. Humber 2100+ will need to consider how it's future options and pathways will effect these industries and its wider impact on economic growth.

Rural land use and economy - The strategy area includes high value agricultural land and a significant agricultural sector. It also supports important commercial fisheries. The impact on the these industries intensifies as tidal flood risk increases. The Humber 2100+ will need to assess its impact on these industries and consider opportunities, such as for more sustainable land management practices which accommodate periodic flooding.

Material assets - Existing and new material assets, such as those relating to transport, hospitals, power stations, utilities, manufacturing, petrochemicals and mineral assets will increasingly be at risk of tidal flooding under the future baselines. As these assets will be critical to the region’s planned economic growth, the strategy will need to consider how its future options affect these assets.

Biodiversity - The strategy area is important for nature, comprising many designated sites and protected habitats and species. The Humber estuary is one of the most important estuaries for nature conservation in Europe. Increased tidal flooding will pose continuing and new challenges for the management of designated sites, habitats and species. Tidal defences may create habitat loss through ‘coastal squeeze’, requiring compensation through managed realignment. There may be strategic opportunities for biodiversity net gain delivery as part of Humber 2100+.

Water - Clean, abundant water is essential for people and wildlife. Climate change and the increased risk of tidal flooding will make it harder to manage water quality and protect vulnerable water resources. Population growth and urbanisation will add further pressure on water supplies. There are likely to be opportunities to protect the water environment through avoiding or reducing the damaging impact of physical modifications to waterbodies, which will need to be considered in future steps of Humber 2100+.

Geomorphology - Climate change will affect the estuary’s complex geomorphological processes. Increased flooding may accelerate sediment transport and deposition patterns, altering the distribution of mudflats, saltmarshes, and intertidal zones. These changes could disrupt the balance of erosion and accretion, threatening important geomorphology features such as Spurn and the biodiversity that relies on these areas. Rising sea levels may cause 'coastal squeeze', although studies looking at recent changes in intertidal areas do not show widespread losses form coastal squeeze under the current rates of sea level rise in the Humber. Predicting future coastal squeeze losses associated with flood defences will continue to be challenging.

Landscape - Increased tidal flooding will significantly alter the strategy area’s landscape character, especially around the estuary and the Spurn Heritage Coast, which will continue to be subject to a high likelihood of flooding under all the baseline scenarios. There are opportunities to strengthen landscape and townscape character and enhance green and blue infrastructure through partnership working.

Cultural heritage and archaeology - The Humber’s rich cultural heritage will be threatened by climate change. Whilst the increased likelihood of flooding will increase the risk to some heritage assets and buried archaeology, it may also preserve paleo-environmental and archaeological features that are at risk of being dried out. There are opportunities for the strategy to support cultural identity through managing heritage assets' risk of tidal flooding.

Waste and contaminated land - Sea level rise will increase the likelihood of flooding to historic and active landfills, areas of known or potential contaminated land and made ground. Flooding of these sites presents an increasing pollution risk to the surrounding environment, with associated impacts on water quality, aesthetics, human health and ecology. There is also the potential for tidal flood risk under future baseline scenarios to cause erosion and pollution pathways that expose unknown or buried contaminants. Future strategy development will need to consider the location of landfill sites.

Climate change - Climate change predictions show that temperatures will continue to rise, winter rainfall will increase, more rain will fall in intense storms and sea level rise will continue. This will increase flooding and foreshore erosion. As demonstrated through the flood risk baselines,without coordinated flood risk management activities, this would lead to the existing defences being breached or overtopped and the large low-lying areas behind the defences being flooded more frequently.

Please use this online platform to respond, as it helps to collate your responses. For any accessibility issues please email us at: HStrategy@environment-agency.gov.uk

The information within the scoping report is based on GIS mapping of our flood risk baselines and relevant receptors. This mapping is available on ArcGIS online (AGOL) and can be shared if you or your organisation have an appropriate license. If you would like access to this, or would like access to pdf maps of the flood risk baselines, please email: HStrategy@environment-agency.gov.uk

We will consider all comments received as part of this consultation. Where appropriate, we will incorporate these comments into a final version of the SA scoping report addendum. This will be used to inform the future development of H2100+ strategy. All other comments will be acknowledged through an appendix in the final report.